New Venture Risk

The ability to assess key risk factors for a new venture is important for angel investors, venture capitalists, and entrepreneurs who must invest their own money and time or the money of their investors.  Likewise business leaders frequently must approve new products, product lines, areas of market pursuits, acquisitions, or spin-outs.  The ability to assess the risk of such activities is a fundamental part of the decision process.  So it’s important to have a methodology for organizing a risk assessment.  

 

Many articles, treatises, and books have been written on the topic.  However my experience is that most professional investors and leaders of new ventures use the following criteria:

 

The key risk factors for a new venture are:

  1. Technical Risk
  2. Market Risk
  3. Execution Risk
  4. Financing Risk

So before investing in a start-up, or launching a new product line, each of the above factors need to be assessed.  The main question is are the risks appropriate for the stage of investment (seed, start-up, mezzanine, etc.) and are their plans to sufficiently manage each of them.

 

Technical Risk

Can the product or service that is envisioned be built?  Typically one or more of the following stages will challenge the development and need to be navigated prior to the technical risk being eliminated: invention/innovation, design, testing, component sourcing, and design for production.

 

Market Risk

If the product or service is produced will the market value it?  This means the actual value proposition needs to lead to significant and sufficient demand for the product.  Frequently this requires adjustments to the product or service design as well as tuning to the business model prior the market risk being eliminated.

 

Execution Risk

If the Technical Risk and the Market Risk are eliminated then the business needs to scale to meet the customer demand.  Will the business unit be able to solve the myriad of operations and business problems that accompany a rapidly growing company?  Sometimes there are external factors that are tough to overcome but a significant portion of these issues come from internal problems.

 

Financing Risk

Invariably the previous risks, even when resolved, result in the schedule delays.  Such schedule delays usually result in cost over-runs and the need to raise additional funds.  Unfortunately, new venture over-runs are on the order of 2x to 5x of the original cost estimates.  So to raise new funds the team needs to execute milestones that reduce the risks described above and have sufficient talent to be able to raise more funds.  Fund raising could be for venture capital (additional rounds), debt financing (e.g., bank lines of credit, bond issues, etc.) or raising funds from the parent company for an intrapreneurial project.  Sometimes the best ideas fail because the founding team is incapable for raising sufficient funds to fully execute the concept and give time to reduce the risks.

 

Best Way to Overcome New Venture Risks

A common parable to in real-estate investing is to observe that the three most important factors in the value of a piece of real-estate are location, location, and location!  Similarly in the new ventures arena it is often stated that the three most important factors in valuing a new venture are management, management, and management!

 

The prime reason is so critical is that the risks mention above, in combination with a plethora of unknowns and changing external factors, make the ability to predict the ways forward virtually impossible.  No business plan will be able to predict the future and moves.  Very similar to playing chess.  No game plan prior to the game will be able to anticipate the situation after only a few moves.  

 

The only way one can have confidence that a new venture will successfully navigate these challenges and potential obstacles is to rely upon a talented and experienced management team that will find effective solutions to each and every issue that presents itself.  One can’t predict the issues and write down the solutions a priori, but a talented executive team maximizes the probability that the business will successfully adapt on the fly.  Hence, a reasonable maxim is as follows:


The best innoculation against new venture risk is a capable management team.


 

Summary

New venture risk can be factored into technical, marketing, execution, and financing risks.  The best way to insure a new venture will maximize its probability of circumventing these risks is to empower a capable management team.

 


 

Just for the record engineers would represent the situation as

 

     RiskNew Ventures = function (RiskTechnical, RiskMarket, RiskExecution, RiskFinancing)

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